Effects Of A Midterm Election On the Labor Market
Experts predict that the labor market, hit exceptionally hard by Covid and its aftermath, will find some strength and stability toward the end of 2022, just in time for the midterm elections. Mid-Terms essentially affect the balance in congress which in turn will affect the power of congress to pass certain bills/laws. Many small and medium size businesses in Los Angeles are already wondering if a midterm election year should impact their hiring decisions.
Midterm Elections Mark A New Timeline For Change
Originally, the prediction was that we wouldn’t see a comeback in jobs and the economy until the middle of 2023, but now experts are saying they think it could happen much sooner than expected. The midterm election is still a month away, here’s what experts are saying about what to expect in November
Midterm Elections Potentially Looking Good For Republicans
Political analysts predict that Republicans will do well in the midterm for many reasons. Historically, when people aren't happy with the job the president is doing they take it out on the candidates or the incumbents from his party. And, with Biden's rapidly declining approval rating, it would make sense that voters would express their dissatisfaction at the midterms. When Biden was elected, his initial approval rating was +17 points. But since his time in the White House his approval rating has consistently fallen, and according to a recent Gallup poll currently stands at 49%.
Those with a more optimistic mindset will say that there's still plenty of time for Biden to turn things around, history doesn't necessarily agree. In nine of the previous 11 midterm election years, presidents had a lower net approval rating on Election Day than they did in January of that year. And while anything can happen, it is not likely that Biden will somehow change the mind of enough voters to increase his approval rating in a way that will gain him seats in the House.
While this does not mean all hope is lost for the Democratic party, a lot of the outcome will depend on how Democrats push Biden's infrastructure plan, which directly impacts the labor market.
2022 Midterm Labor Market Predictions
If the midterms go as many are predicting they will, there will be a surge of healthcare, healthcare support, construction, and personal care jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) “ Together, these four occupational groups are expected to account for more than 5.3 million new jobs by 2022, about one-third of the total employment growth.
According to an article posted on Bloomberg, some other statistics to consider include:
● There are many reasons that the labor force participation rate was stagnant in 2021. Covid-19 had an impact on schools and childcare responsibilities, which made it harder for parents to work regular schedules. Consistency and schools and daycares in 2o22 will be a contributing factor to labor force participation.
● The labor market may be slow to rebound because many older Americans have retired. “This is a big chunk of missing workers that we don’t think will come back,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co.
● Industries like hospitality, education, and health care are expected to contribute significantly to payroll gains in 2022. This is mainly because these industries have been hit the hardest and will have the farthest to go to meet pre covid numbers.
● The good news is, The high demand for labor means that Americans who are actively looking for jobs should be able to find them quickly.
● The strong demand for workers also means that workers will have more bargaining power when it comes to wages in 2022.
The Midterm Election Labor Market Take Away
A lot can happen between now and the midterms, but economists are optimistic that 2022 will be the year that people who need jobs will find them, and companies that desperately need workers will also find the relief that they need.
But you don’t have to wait until the midterm elections to find the workers you need to expand your business. Connect with Los Angeles’ leading staffing agency to take your first step today!